Weekly Roundup 2019 CW 07

This week Roundup was done a little later than usual. I had some fever that stopped me yesterday. I also wanted to wait for some data from PPM before finishing this post. During the week we have seen some lukewarm economic data increasing investors confidence. I am still bearish, and my outlook is still a recession starting in 2020. Nowadays we see a lot of FOMO, and I am afraid that some retail investors are going to get burned badly.

USD/SEK ended the week @ 9,2762 SEK. Swedish currency is weak at these levels making US stocks expensive.

The South East Asian vacation is around the corner, and I am looking forward to warm and sunny weather.

US Market Outlook

S&P 500 1 Year development until CW7 2019.

Markets continued to grind higher this week on the back of lukewarm economic data that served to increase investor confidence that the Fed would indeed hold off on further hikes and positive signs out of Washington and Beijing that progress on the U.S.-China trade front was being made. Additionally, while both sides still do not appear ready to make an official announcement, it seems increasingly more likely that we could get an extension in the tariff hike scheduled for the beginning of March, as the two sides iron out terms.

Treasury yields were relatively unchanged, as were gold prices as investors continue to weigh the potential for a trade deal against the consensus that we are in the final innings of the economic expansion. The dollar continued to push higher versus the euro following last week’s announcement by the European Commission that it was reducing its growth forecast for the Eurozone to 1.3% in 2019, down from the prior estimate of 1.9%.

The Federal Reserve announced that industrial production decreased 0.6% in January, following a 0.1% advance in December (revised down from +0.3% previously reported). The industrial production accounts for a relatively small portion of total GDP, and it is considered an essential macroeconomic indicator. It measures the output from the manufacturing, mining, electric and gas industries, and can aid in forecasting structural changes in the economy, business cycle inflection points, and inflationary trends.

The portfolio

The portfolio moved northward for the 7th week in a row, gaining 1.43% during the week. I am still straggling behind the SIXRX which gained 3.33%. The calculated Alpha is 5.55%.

Transactions

I re-entered into Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) @ $191.50. Following the trade, GS will represent 1.6% of the portfolio. Buying the shares below the firm’s substantial book value per share of $196.64.

Goldman has made significant strides in decreasing the amount of volatility in its earnings. Behind this is the increased amount of fee-based or more recurring revenues that make up the company’s total business.

During the week I opened or added some weight in the following funds:

Evli Emerging Frontier B
Fidelity Malaysia A-Dis-USD (New)
Fidelity Singapore A-Dis-USD (New)
Fidelity Switzerland Fund A-CHF
Fidelity Thailand A-Dis-USD (New)
Invesco Emerging Europe Equity A USD Acc

You can always see my portfolio here. Updated each weekend.

The depots in the portfolio

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