Weekly Roundup 2019 CW 03

Vanguard announces the passing of John Clifton Bogle, founder of The Vanguard Group. The entire community of American investors mourned the passing of John C. Bogle this week. Mr. Bogle was an American investor, business magnate, and philanthropist. He died at the age of 89.

Market Outlook

SPX YTD 2019. CW3

The week has been generally positive. The cyclical bear market seems to keep on its trip down even if we now have seen a strong bounce the last days. US10Y ended the week higher at 2.785% as investors moved back into equities. Gold finished the week roughly flat, holding at around the $1,280 level. The dollar strengthened slightly versus the euro and the Swedish krona.

I am still bearish in my outlook also as many investors are unconcerned about the fact that the economy is weak if we look on the amount of QE and low rates that have boosted the market since the financial crisis. This market climate could lures retail investors into the market before we see a more significant drop. I am still thinking that we will see a global recession starting in 2020.

I believe that we besides the risks in the US also have some threats within China that could affect the global economy. China is dealing with a situation where policies have been very focused on preventing the financial crisis and a credit freeze. Other policies, they’re trying to support growth, but not enough to offset some of the negatives that are developing. In the latest Chinese trade data export growth was down 4.4% year over year, which is a negative read on industrial production, employment and on Chinese GDP.

President Trump does his best to not get impeached.

The Portfolio

Here is my different KPI's for CW 3 2019.

The portfolio had a good week with a gain of 1.08%. The portfolio is still lagging behind SIXRX which gained 2.37%. The volatility this few days is 1.45%, much because of my high cash- and precious metals position in the portfolio. At the moment I have 25.3 % cash and 20.3% precious metals.

My different depots in the portfolio.

Transactions

I have deposited SEK 3,000 during the week, and I allocated the cash into my three Emerging Markets funds. I have also raised my stake in silver during the week.

I wish you a great weekend!

Steenberger

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *