Weekly Roundup 2019 CW 02

 Here is my weekly roundup for CW 02. My portfolio gained 1.13% during the week compared to SIXRX which gained 2.56%.

Looking at the markets, we see that US stocks continued their correction moving higher this week. (Remember in a bear market the corrections are upwards.) Markets pressed higher this week on increased optimism that progress is being made on the China trade front as the two nations met this week in Beijing.  As the US stocks move up, we have seen a weakening for USD compared to EUR & SEK. US10Y ended the week relatively flat at 2.702%. Gold finished the week marginally higher.

I am still bearish in my outlook for 2019 and 2020. We see QT performed by central banks meaning that central bank balance sheets are gradually shrinking, which reduces liquidity in the market.  We need to be aware of that approximately 40% of the price appreciation has come from share
buybacks. Just last year there was a trillion dollars worth of share buybacks. So with less money printing, the market will have more headwind to come. The QE performed for some years with low interest rates, and this money printing is not creating fundamental growth. This is a financial accounting illusion that is being used to create the illusion of earnings per share growth by reducing the number of shares.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.